Industrial outdoor storage outlook: summer 2025

Is a surge in freight volume coming? We are cautiously optimistic.

There has been a palpable shift in market sentiment ever since the United States temporarily eased tariffs on Chinese-made goods and doubled-down on its commitment to strike long-term policy deals with trade partners. Incoming import volumes across all major U.S. gateways are expected to increase incrementally over the next few months, as shippers and retailers look to import dwelling and freshly manufactured product, restocking warehouses and mitigating the risk of paying higher tariffs if the policy easing reverses course. Many in the industry are expecting a shift in market conditions, albeit with uncertainty as to whether the shift is transitory or more sustained. So, what does this really mean for logistics service providers and shippers in need of parking and storage?

Many stakeholders across the industry have demonstrated a level of optimism not seen since the import surge experienced during the Great Inventory Restock of 2021 and 2022. For the first time in a long time, there are lofty expectations that idled trucks will get back on the road, rates will have a steady but sustainable increase, and new lines of business will convert. And there is some anecdotal and quantitative data that underpins the elevated excitement about how the remainder of Peak Season will impact market performance.

Indicators pointing to an increase in freight volumes

One positive indicator is the action major chassis vendors, such as Trac Intermodal, are executing, repositioning assets and preparing to bring more equipment online, in an attempt to circumvent any shortage that may trigger congestion at gateways and receiving destinations. Repositioning and reactivating transportation assets is a sizable investment, which means that substantial due diligence to gain full conviction on the opportunity is necessary. Given the decisive action, it is safe to assume that end users of leased transportation equipment, such as shippers, motor carriers and ports, have indicated that there will be more than enough volume to support the repositioning of assets and introduction of idle equipment into the market.

Diving into the quantitative data, one lagging indicator that can predicate the extent of the import surge is the inventory to sales (“I/S”) ratio published by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. In April 2025, the most recent month of reported data, the inventory to sale ratio came in at 1.29. This means that for every $1 in sales, there is $1.29 in inventory. Moreover, the inventory-to-sales ratio will tell us that most retailers are currently holding at least 1.29 months’ worth of product. Compared to historical data, April’s I/S is roughly 7 basis points lower than the trailing 12-month average of 1.36, effectively disseminating that retailers have 5% less inventory on-hand. Ahead of the back-to-school and 2025 holiday purchasing seasons, you can expect retailers to close the gap by increasing their I/S closer to the LTM average, meaning import volumes will need to remain elevated through the summer months.

Industrial real estate vacancy rates, specifically warehousing and distribution facilities, must also be analyzed, as the utilization rate (the inverse of vacancy) is a leading indicator for holistic parking and storage demand. Currently, warehousing product in major port and transit markets are up to 95% utilized, meaning that there is very little vacancy for imported freight to flow into once capacity is fully absorbed. And when warehouses become full, it requires shippers to “pre-pull” their freight to drop-yards and container depots until the next receiving date, creating demand for short-term parking and storage.

The aforementioned insights all culminate into an advantageous “perfect storm” that has the potential to create conducive market conditions for industrial outdoor storage operators and motor carriers. However, it is important to acknowledge several emerging reports that may diminish the potential uptick in transportation activity and surge in parking and storage demand. FreightWaves recently published an article that reports ocean carrier spot rates, a proxy for trade activity, are down 44% from June’s peak. The decline is primarily attributed to ocean carriers' activating capacity, in what would have been a pre-emptive infusion ahead of elevated volumes. However, the move turned out to be too much capacity for the amount of freight destined to cross oceans. Further, the National Retail Federation forecasted a 20% year-over-year decrease in import volumes for the remainder of the year citing downward pressure on consumer confidence and the uncertainty of federal trade policy.

The question of what can or what will occur for the remainder of the 2025 shipping season is and will be unknown until we look back in retrospect. Considering all the data, there is a valid case for industry participants to keep their rose-colored glasses on. We expect demand for short-term parking and storage to increase nominally through July and August, plateauing through September, followed by an incremental but steady decline for the remainder of the year.

As freight volumes go up, so does the need for flexible, secure container storage

During the period of heightened demand, users of industrial outdoor storage must prioritize building a contingency or business continuity plan with pre-approved, secure yards that can be accessible at moment’s notice. Preparation is key, as not all available yards are the right fit. In fact, most ordinary solutions that are widely available to the public market will lack the necessary security and operational rigor necessary to keep your freight safe and moving efficiently. Focus on forging partnerships with solutions providers that you can trust to remove the tedious location search and audit process, and instead provide a curated set of parking and storage solutions that meet your exact needs.